The run-up to the 2020 Indiana primary election was unlike anything we’ve ever seen.
“There was no direct voter contact by any responsible candidate for virtually the entire election. No face-to-face contact, door-to-door, no public meetings, rallies, etc. At the state legislative level, that contact is a big deal and a good ground game is often what makes a difference in tough races,” says Jeff Brantley, Indiana Chamber senior vice president of political affairs and the foundation.
“We obviously had to shift tactics because there was no direct voter contact. Mail, phones, broadcast and digital communications became more important than ever.
“One of the advantages Republicans have had beyond the (usual) advantage of money has been a better ground game in competitive seats. It runs against media misconceptions, but the GOP has a better program at organizing grassroots volunteers, direct voter contact and getting out the vote. Democrats have a lot of intensity, but a big question for 2020 is if they can build a ground game outside of urban areas.
“The mail-in ballots definitely made an impact. We don’t have the final numbers yet, but a really significant percentage of this year’s primary election voters had not voted in a recent primary or ever before,” Brantley offers.
Democrats have made mail-in voting a strategic priority for a while but accelerated their efforts the last few months. “If there is a resurgence of COVID-19 in the fall and we have a similar mail-in ballot scenario for the general election, it will create a great deal more uncertainty and likely provide for some fascinating outcomes.
“When given the mail-in ballot option and that convenience, big numbers of voters went ahead and voted. In a Republican-leaning state, to see those kinds of strong numbers for Democrats in absentee ballots by mail, it’s a new wrinkle.”
Brantley was also struck by the number of General Assembly Republican incumbents who faced a barrage of aggressive attacks from third-party groups operating under non-profit, not-reportable status. Candidates were savaged from the right on issues such as guns, abortion and term limits.
Chief among them: Matt Lehman (R-Berne, House District 79), number two in House leadership, and Rep. Dan Leonard (R-Huntington, HD 50), a longtime committee chairman. Each earned hard-fought victories. However, IBRG-backed freshman Rep. Dollynne Sherman (R-Indianapolis) and open seat candidate Leah McGrath (R-Fishers) failed to win in tough and very different election races.
Given the unique dynamics of this primary, Brantley was pleased with 16 of 18 IBRG-endorsed state legislative candidates coming through to win.
General election preview – Indiana House supermajority in play
As we shift gears now to the fall, Brantley says it’s important to recognize the differences between 2020 and the last presidential election.
“There has been a dramatic shift in public opinion and party ID in the suburbs – particularly around Indianapolis, but even out-state in the suburbs – where significant numbers of more affluent voters, particularly women, and moderates are breaking away from their traditional party views.
“They’re becoming more independent and more Democratic and in a major way. And so that’s going to put new seats in play. Many of these districts have not had competitive general elections for state legislative races in decades. There’s a real threat to the Republicans’ supermajority in the House.”
While Brantley cautions that was also a prospect two years ago when the House Republicans took some losses, he puts the likelihood in 2020 as notably higher.
“There’s just so many new races, new districts in play – particularly with legislators who’ve been in office for a decade or decades and never really had to run a modern campaign and in districts where both the demographics and voter opinions on the parties have changed significantly. Candidates, parties and the Chamber’s political program will need to adapt and invest in new tools and strategies to win,” he assesses.
“If COVID-19 had never happened, we already were going to be facing one of the most challenging and unusual elections in a generation driven largely by what was going on in Washington. Now, with the pandemic and economic upheaval, it is unpredictable in so many more ways. What’s important for the Chamber’s political program is to be engaged early and to have the resources to be able to compete on a broad swath of races in the fall.”
In 2016, Donald Trump was an asset for Republicans down ballot. While he’s not as popular in the state as four or even two years ago, it’s only marginally so statewide. Yet, looking at this on a community by community, district by district basis, there have been big changes and that could prove the difference in some of the aforementioned suburban districts, Brantley says.
The litmus test for how far some of the suburban districts have swung is CD 5, being vacated by Republican Susan Brooks and contested between current state Sen. Victoria Spaartz (R-Noblesville) and former state Rep. Christina Hale (D-Indianapolis).
Brantley declares, “There is no question, looking at the polling data we have, that the 5th congressional district is highly competitive – no question at all.”
The Chamber’s non-partisan political program is governed by a volunteer committee which makes decisions on candidate endorsements and targeting. Those endorsement evaluations will be taking place this summer. All determinations will be based on voting records of incumbents and those candidates with the strongest support and leadership for pro-jobs, pro-economy agendas at the Statehouse and in Washington.
