By Adam H. Berry
Solar energy has the potential to supply up to 40% of the nation’s electricity within 15 years – a 10-fold increase over current solar output, according to a new report by the U.S. Energy Department’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy.
But that kind of seismic shift would require massive changes in U.S. policy and billions of dollars in federal investment to modernize the nation’s electric grid. Costs for solar energy transmission lines alone run as high as $1 million per mile. And there’s certainly going to be a lot of debate about those costs.
Indiana could play a role in this shift.
While comprising less than 2% of all electricity generation in the state in 2020, solar is poised to grow substantially in Indiana in the next decade.
According to the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), the Hoosier state is projected to more than triple its current solar capacity over the next five years. Long term, solar generation in the state is expected to grow thirtyfold.
“With the way technology changes, it’s difficult to predict the future, but I do think the 40% mark nationally is achievable and completely realistic,” says Amrou Awaysheh, assistant professor of operations management at Indiana University’s Kelley School of Business and executive director of the IU Business Sustainability Lab. “I think a major increase in Indiana is absolutely achievable.”
While Indiana – with its large swaths of open land and solid number of annual sunny days – could be a major contributor, the state has a long way to go.
Indiana ranks 42nd among U.S. states in number of solar energy installations per 100,000 people, according to the SEIA.
In total solar energy production, Indiana ranks higher – No. 22 – according to Choose Energy Inc., an online energy marketplace. But is far behind the nation’s leaders: California, Texas, Arizona, North Carolina and Florida, and even trails the likes of the more middling states of Maryland, Illinois, Connecticut, Pennsylvania and Minnesota.
Several state organizations, including IU and Purdue University, are working on the issue.
At Purdue, for instance, engineers are developing ways to improve how facilities called concentrated solar power plants produce electricity. These plants provide power at off-peak times by storing heat captured from sunlight that is focused by thousands of mirrors onto a small area. Developments in this research are important steps for putting solar heat-to-electricity generation in direct cost competition with fossil fuels, which generate two-thirds of our country’s electricity.
The 21st Century Energy Policy Development Task Force, which was established by Indiana lawmakers in 2019 and re-established this year, also is looking into the potential of solar.
While solar energy holds much promise, there are bound to be questions. Key among them is how much farmland will need to be sacrificed to facilitate the kinds of growth being discussed and what impact a shift to solar will have on existing energy markets – namely coal – that have a significant economic impact on Indiana.
“It’s a knee-jerk reaction to ask how much farmland we will lose to implement solar,” Awaysheh says. “There is a lot of land available that is not value-added farmland. You have to consider rooftops and fields that don’t produce as much.
“Instead of asking what we will lose, you want to look at what we will gain in terms of resiliency in the energy grid, lowering our carbon emissions and lowering the price of electricity … which helps lower the costs for manufacturers and other businesses – and makes them more competitive in a global economy,” he adds.
Awaysheh also thinks the move to solar could provide Hoosier farmers with another income stream and increase the demand and value of their farmland.
The recently released Energy Department report is not intended as a policy statement or administration goal, officials said. Instead, it is “designed to guide and inspire the next decade of solar innovation by helping us answer questions like: How fast does solar need to increase capacity and to what level?” said Becca Jones-Albertus, director of the Energy Department’s solar energy technologies office.
Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said in a statement that the study “illuminates the fact that solar, our cheapest and fastest-growing source of clean energy, could produce enough electricity to power all of the homes in the U.S. by 2035 and employ as many as 1.5 million people in the process.”
Awaysheh says: “These (solar industry jobs) are the types of high-paying jobs the governor and Indiana Economic Development Corporation are trying to bring here.
“It’s no longer a question of if these changes are coming but when,” he stresses. “This is coming down the road irrespective of where your political view lies. There are a lot of companies right here in Indiana – including big manufacturers like Cummins – that are moving to net-zero emission goals and carbon neutral targets. They see the writing on the wall.”
Adam H. Berry is vice president of economic development and technology at the Indiana Chamber of Commerce. He joined the organization in 2019.
