In May, the Democrat-controlled U.S. House of Representatives passed its set of ideas for the next round of coronavirus relief for businesses. Now we await the Senate Republican majority to unveil its own with different priorities. Many expect this phase four effort will be the last big piece of legislation (prior to the election, at least) addressing the economic situation resulting from the virus. The Senate Republican version is expected to be introduced next week (week of July 20). Of course, it will require bipartisan support to be taken up by the Senate for action, prompting analysts to identify items that could be found acceptable by members of both parties.

Things that stand a good chance:

  • Liability protection for businesses, hospitals and schools – a must-have for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell
  • Substantial assistance to state and local governments – everybody recognizes the hurt they are in
  • Financial support to schools associated with reopening efforts – at this time, schools are clearly at the forefront of everyone’s mind
  • A reduction in the extra $600 in federal money that is being tacked on to unemployment checks (which ends July 25) – a necessary compromise sought to both make up the monetary deficit for unemployed individuals but not set so high as to discourage re-engagement with employer
  • Some kind of return-to-work bonus – likely a popular, bipartisan incentive
  • A second round of stimulus checks, but with eligibility limitations – only the amount and restrictions are really in debate

On a related note, Indiana Chamber President Kevin Brinegar took part in the Council of State Chambers/U.S. Chamber of Commerce Taskforce that helped put together the must-haves in the U.S. Chamber of Commerce letter to Congress, which was sent Thursday. Much of these are reflected above.

Things that appear unlikely:

  • Payroll tax cuts – simply no consensus
  • Student loan forgiveness – not really in the mix as it doesn’t rise to the top list of concerns
  • An infrastructure plan – while this has been talked about repeatedly for years and even recently, it’s too costly at this time

A lot of negotiation will have to take place, details debated, compromises reached – all things Washington has not been very proficient at – yet the legislation is something of a forgone conclusion. Beyond the particulars, the biggest question right now is how much Congress is willing to spend. The House bill would cost around $3 trillion. The Senate Republicans are talking about spending less than half that. And the President says he wants them to pass at least $2 trillion in relief. So, what is included in the package and its price tag are up in the air, but if they want to get it done soon, they’ll have to get busy since Congress goes on a month-long break August 7. Indications, however, are there will be a strong effort to have it wrapped up by then.

Resource: Bill Waltz at (317) 264-6887 or email: bwaltz@indianachamber.com